Over $3 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Set to Expire, Impacting Market Ahead of Trump’s Crypto Summit

Today, a staggering $3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are scheduled to expire, with expectations of over $2.5 billion in BTC and around $500 million in ETH contracts being settled. How will this influence the prices of these cryptocurrencies?

The expiration of these options is set for 8:00 UTC on Deribit, which may lead to notable volatility across the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin's Max Pain Price Stands at $89,000

On this day, a total of 29,005 Bitcoin contracts valued at $2.54 billion are poised for expiration. Data from Deribit reveals a put-to-call ratio of 0.67 for Bitcoin, marking the highest pain point—where most option holders will face losses—at $89,000.

In addition, Ethereum is witnessing the expiration of 223,395 contracts with a notional value of approximately $481.9 million, where the maximum pain point is identified at $2,300, accompanied by a put-to-call ratio of 0.72.

The max pain point strategy reflects the market price level that causes the highest financial discomfort for options holders. The observed put-to-call ratios, being below 1 for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, signify a dominance of buying (calls) over selling (puts) actions in the options market.

According to the trading insights from Greeks.live, there is a prevailing bearish sentiment among traders, attributed to heightened volatility and unpredictable price movements. The sharp intraday fluctuations, such as Bitcoin’s recent $6,000 swings have resulted in what's being called “scam both ways” dynamics, complicating the establishment of a definitive market trend.

“Traders are focusing on the 87,000-89,000 range as a key resistance level, with 82,000 noted as the recent bottom. However, there is considerable disagreement about whether a lasting bottom has been reached,” reported Greeks.live.

Moreover, the significant put skew suggests a cautious outlook among traders, as they still prefer downside protection even during occasional upward movements in prices. Analysts note that traders appear to be recalibrating their strategies in light of the existing market volatility.

“Many are opting to sell calls in the 89,000-90,000 range as a key strategy, with some traders reporting losses of as much as -260% on calls purchased at lower price points,” added Greeks.live.

With the consensus that the market is currently driven by liquidity factors, traders are adopting quick entry and exit techniques, remaining wary as longer positions are susceptible to sudden price shifts. External factors, such as evolving trade policies and tariff changes, only heighten this uncertainty.

This atmosphere has led numerous participants to adopt a 'wait and see' approach, reluctant to enter new positions without clearer market signals.

“Given the current market conditions, where do you anticipate price movements will settle? Above or below the identified max pain points?” posed Deribit on X (formerly Twitter).

It's essential to remember that option expiration primarily affects short-term price action. Markets generally revert to normal conditions soon after, sometimes correcting for any significant price fluctuations.

Traders must remain vigilant, utilizing technical indicators and gauging market sentiment to navigate the upcoming volatility effectively. These developments occur in the backdrop of significant events, such as U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent signing of a strategic Bitcoin reserve order.

However, the order lacked detailed specifics, leaving many queries poised to be addressed during the upcoming White House Crypto Summit.