Struggles of Altcoins Continue Amidst Global Trade Tensions

At the beginning of 2025, numerous altcoins experienced impressive increases, with many reaching new all-time highs, largely driven by a market surge associated with Donald Trump's reactions in the trade arena. However, as Trump's trade conflicts escalate and broader economic uncertainties loom, many altcoins have seen significant declines, prompting discussions about the future of the altcoin season.

Altcoin Season Continues to Evade Investors

The term altcoin season describes a market phase when cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC) in terms of price. Typically, this is evidenced by a surge in prices for altcoins, fueled by investor speculation and a general optimistic sentiment towards the crypto market.

This phase generally starts when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins show positive performance relative to Bitcoin over a three-month span. Unfortunately, this scenario remains distant, as the Altcoin Index tracking this trend has recently fallen to its lowest point since October 2024, indicating ongoing weakness in the market.

Currently, just about 24% of leading altcoins have registered better performance than Bitcoin over the last 90 days, underscoring Bitcoin's continued dominance in the crypto ecosystem. This underwhelming performance raises doubts about whether an altcoin season is on the horizon.

Additionally, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin (referred to as TOTAL2), has been in a pronounced downward trajectory since the start of the year, moving within a parallel descending channel. This trend suggests a steadfast downtrend, as it demonstrates that prices have been making lower highs and lower lows.

Ongoing Downtrends in Altcoin Performance

As of now, TOTAL2 sits at approximately $1.14 trillion, having dropped by 17% since the beginning of January. This persistent downturn signifies a lack of robust bullish momentum in the altcoin market, which suggests that the likelihood of an upcoming altcoin season remains minimal.

Increased Bitcoin Dominance Amid Market Declines

While altcoins falter amid the market pullback triggered by global trade tensions, Bitcoin’s dominance has continued to rise. An analysis of Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) indicates an upward trend on daily charts.

This metric measures Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, which has remained consistently above an ascending trend line since last December, resting at 61.29% at present.

Should Bitcoin maintain a strong dominance, it may prolong the delay regarding the potential onset of an altcoin season, pushing the prospect even further away.